While the national conversation around childhood obesity often focuses on rising healthcare costs, new research co-authored by Ball State University economist Dr. Maoyong Fan suggests the crisis may also be limiting the “American Dream.”
The study finds that childhood obesity carries a lifelong “mobility penalty,” reducing an individual’s likelihood of moving up the economic ladder and living in higher-opportunity neighborhoods as an adult. Available online, the study, “Weighing Down the Future: Long-term Effects of Childhood Obesity on Intergenerational Mobility,” has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), which followed participants from adolescence into adulthood, and linking records to the Opportunity Atlas, the researchers identified a stark relationship between adolescent weight and future prosperity. Compared with their normal-weight peers, adolescents with obesity end up about 20 percentile points lower in adult income rank relative to their parents.
The study also finds reduced access to high-opportunity neighborhoods in adulthood. For example, childhood obesity is associated with a 17.6 percentage-point lower likelihood of living in a low-poverty neighborhood.
“Childhood obesity isn’t just a health crisis. It is an economic mobility crisis,” said Dr. Fan, professor of economics in Ball State’s Miller College of Business. “The evidence points to lower educational attainment, persistent health problems, and disadvantages within the labor market, including higher reported job discrimination and adverse occupational sorting.”
The study highlights that the economic consequences are not distributed equally. The researchers found that penalties fall hardest on those already facing disadvantage:
- Gender: Females experience larger mobility penalties than males.
- Socioeconomic status: The effects are more severe for children from low-income families.
- Geography: The effects are most pronounced in the South and Midwest, regions that the study describes as overlapping “obesity hotspots” and “opportunity deserts.”
“For millions of American families, excess weight in childhood may be quietly closing doors to opportunity,” noted co-author Dr. Yanhong Jin, professor at Rutgers University. “This creates a feedback loop that can deepen inequality.”
As policymakers consider strategies to reduce childhood obesity, the study suggests prevention should be viewed not only as a health priority, but also as an investment in economic opportunity.
“Interventions that reduce childhood obesity can deliver benefits well beyond lower medical spending,” said co-author Dr. Man Zhang, assistant professor at Renmin University in China. “They can support higher educational attainment, improve job prospects, and increase upward economic mobility for the next generation.”