MUNCIE, Ind. - It's unbelievable, baby! A Cinderella story! This is the first time a 16 seed has knocked off a number one!

The crowd is going bonkers and Dick Vitale is actually losing his voice ...

This scenario, of David slaying Goliath or Vitale losing his voice, has yet to happen in the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, which switched to the 64-team format in 1985. John Rajca, mathematics instructor at the Indiana Academy for Science, Mathematics and Humanities on the campus of Ball State University, has a statistical model that says it is due to happen soon.

"History has shown that a number 16 team has never beaten a number one," Rajca said. "But to say that it will never happen is wrong."

There have been some close calls:

• 1989: No. 1 Georgetown 50, No. 16 Princeton 49
• 1990: No. 1 Michigan State 75, No. 16 Murray State 71 (OT)

His model examines only first-round data, so each year consistent statistics can be analyzed. The accuracy of the model's predictions of other historical first-round games supports the theory of the possibility of the ultimate NCAA upset, Rajca said.

For example, using scores from NCAA tournaments between 1985 and 2001, Rajca's model estimated that a 9 seed would upset an 8 seed 37.26 times; this happened 39 times. A 7 seed would defeat a 10 seed 29.14 times; this happened 28 times. An 11 seed would win 23.23 games against a 6 seed; this has happened 21 times.

A 15 seed has defeated a number two seed four times. Rajca's model predicted it would happen 4.16 times. And although a lowly 16 seed has never defeated a number one, his model said it could happen 1.48 times.

"On average, every 11 years we should get an upset," Rajca said with a laugh. "It tells us every 11 years, but doesn't tell us what year or what game it will happen."

Rajca's research reveals a number of interesting facts about first-round games, including one that shows just how tough the Davids of college basketball have it against the Goliaths; Historically, 16th-seeded teams have been blown out by an average of more than 25 points. On the flipside, ninth-seeded teams win most of the battles against the eighth-seeded teams.

Rajca's interest in the mathematical match-ups is as much a vocational exercise as it is a whimsical outlet analyzing one of his favorite sporting events. Every year, he participates in the "Upset Game" with his college buddies. Rather than bet money, they go for bragging rights.

"The only way we score points is by picking the upsets," Rajca said. "If there are no upsets, nobody gets any points."

Even with its facts and impressive statistics, Rajca's model has no practical value, does not help him dominate the Upset Game, and he does not endorse gambling, he said.

But what would sports be without statistics?

(Note to Editors: For more information, contact Rajca (ray-ka) at (765) 285-7405 or jrajca@bsu.edu. For more stories, log on to the Ball State University News Center at www.bsu.edu/news.)