Consumers can expect deep price cuts in response to fears that retail says may fall short of expectations, said James Lowry, a retail industry analyst.

The psychological effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and major layoffs in several industries will have a negative impact on the upcoming holiday season, he said.

"In late summer we were expecting sales to grow by 4 percent over last year," Lowry said. "Now, it should really be around 1.5 to 2.5 percent. That growth may depend on what happens as America battles terrorism. More bad news may cut into sales further."

Consumers spent about $195 billion during last year's holiday shopping season, a 5.3 percent increase over the previous year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Lowry anticipates many national retailers to begin the shopping season earlier than expected to lure costumers into stores. The season traditionally begins the Friday after Thanksgiving, but retailers often begin holiday sales as early as Nov. 1.

Instead of waiting until a week or two before Christmas to drastically cut prices, retailers may begin deep discounts in the next several weeks, he said.

"Retailers ordered their inventory in the spring when the economic outlook was not as sluggish," Lowry said. "They may be scared to have a lot of inventory sitting on shelves for several months.

"Instead, they'll dramatically reduce prices to move merchandise," he said. "It will eat into their profits, but at least they'll have customers in the store buying merchandise. They must move those items before the spring merchandise arrives in January or February."

Lowry said many malls will upgrade their security forces during the holiday season in response to consumer fears about terrorism.

To counter the stress created by heightened security, some retailers will revamp their stores by offering soothing music, setting up television sets in men's clothing areas and increasing offerings of comfortable clothing.

"People want to feel comfortable and safe, but all the security makes them uneasy," he said. "By adding cheery music and pleasant salespeople, they can make people feel at ease."

By Marc Ransford, Communications Manager

(NOTE TO EDITORS: For more information, contact Lowry at jlowry@bsu.edu or (765) 285-5180.)