MUNCIE, Ind. -- While President Clinton and the Republican Congress take bows about the anticipated federal budget surplus, the forces responsible for the nation's fiscal turnaround date back to the early 1990s.

A strong economy and budget restraints have created an anticipated federal budget surplus of about $8 billion by the end of the current fiscal year, says Joe Losco, a Ball State University political science professor.

Former President George Bush should be credited with providing the initiative to tackle an ever-growing deficit, he said.

Losco believes that when Bush broke his "read my lips" promise not to raise taxes, it was the real first step to tackle a growing problem. The federal government has been spending more than it has been taking in since the 1960s.

"He (Bush) was forced to raise taxes because of the size of the deficit," he said. "It was mushrooming after eight years of President Reagan constantly cutting taxes and increasing spending on defense."

Also during the Bush years, an agreement by the White House and Congress allowed new spending programs to be created only by cutting existing programs.

Clinton and the Democratic Party-controlled Congress then took up Bush's initiatives in 1993, Losco said.

"The president then took a major step to bring the budget into balance," he said. "This included targeted increases in taxes aimed  at those at the high end of the income scale." Budget forecasters now say the budget deficit will actually turn into a surplus by the end of the year.

If it comes true, it would certainly represent a major legacy for Clinton, Bush, and the Republic Congress, given the government's track record. It has managed just eight  balanced budgets in the past half century.