Muncie, Ind. -- Retailers will be disappointed when sales totals are calculated for the recent holiday shopping season, says a Ball State retail analyst.

Instead of a robust 5-6 percent increase over 1996, most retailers will discover that sales were up only 2-3 percent, said James Lowry, a marketing professor.

Sales at 2,500 stores in 49 malls across the United States rose just 2 percent during the first three weeks of the season, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Lowry blames the lower sales numbers on a myriad of problems, including credit card debt, a long shopping season, too many retailers, and changing shopping habits.

"We had quite a few problems with the Christmas holiday season that retailers didn't anticipate," he said. "The biggest area is that Americans are millions of dollars in debt with their credit cards, which led most people to be a little more conservative than usual."

While sales numbers were off, discount stores and higher priced speciality goods outlets reported high numbers. Retailers caught between the two levels suffered, he said.

Reasons for the spending shortage include:

• shoppers are burned out with the ever-increasing shopping season. The first day of Christmas shopping used to start the day after Thanksgiving but now sales begin in mid to late October.
• affluent shoppers are shifting from buying gifts to purchasing services, including gift certificates, trips, vacations or makeovers.
• overabundance of retail outlets. Americans have too many options with 19 square feet of retail space for every person in the country.

"We are totally over retailed and shoppers are burned out," Lowry said. "We have too many options, too many sales, and too many specials going on month after month. At some point, people don't want to shop any longer.

"For other shoppers, they don't need another dress shirt, sweater or tie," he said. "Instead, they'd like a nice vacation, or to have their kitchen redone. Service-oriented gifts are a major trend, taking dollars away from retailers."

Lowry believes that the American retail industry will have to change to recapture the disgruntled shopper.

With the glut of retail outlets, he also expects a major surge in bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions in the coming years.