U.S. Economic Indicators
The Latest Analysis
What is Driving Current Unemployment?
by Michael J. Hicks
Structural unemployment comes about when the skills of a worker become redundant.
The unemployment data seem a straightforward bit of news, but understanding how job losses and gains figures into the news is a bit more tricky. Economics textbooks tell us that unemployment comes in three flavors: frictional, structural and cyclical.
Frictional unemployment is a natural part of an economy. Even during good times, a large share of workers change jobs voluntarily, are fired or are in companies that fail. Annual turnover of 10 percent in the most stable industries are common, and may rise to half of workers in retail firms. As a consequence something like 4˝ to 6 percent of the labor force is comprised of these folks who are unemployed due to the normal frictions associated with job changes. A vibrant economy needs this type of job market.
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Recently Released Studies from the CBER
Cultural Tourism in Indiana: The
Impact and Clustering of the Arts and Creative Sectors in This Recession
This report documents the economic benefits of cultural tourism in
Indiana and the density patterns of the state's tourism-related sectors.
Full
Report
2009 Manufacturing and Logistics
Report Card
The 2009 Manufacturing and Logistics Report Card grades states in
six areas of the economy that underlie the success of manufacturing and
logistics in each state. These include specific measures of
manufacturing and logistics health, human capital, the cost of benefits,
the global position of the industries, state level productivity and
innovation and tax climate.
Full Report
Data Releases
Consumer Confidence, June
2009
The Conference
Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had improved considerably in
May, retreated in June. The Index now stands at 49.3 (1985=100), down
from 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 24.8 from
29.7. The Expectations Index declined to 65.5 from 71.5 in May.
U.S. Employment, June
2009
Nonfarm payroll
employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 9.5 percent. Job losses were widespread
across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in
manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.
Manufacturers'
Inventories, May 2009
New orders
for manufactured goods in May, up three of the last four months,
increased $4.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $347.9 billion. This followed a
0.5 percent April increase. Shipments, down ten consecutive months,
decreased $3.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $353.3 billion. Unfilled
orders, down eight consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.2
percent to $747.3 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent April decrease.
The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.15, up from 6.04 in April.
Inventories, down nine consecutive months, decreased $3.2 billion or 0.6
percent to $513.3 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45,
unchanged from April.